Russia is currently engaged in resovietization. Their global leadership was annihilated when the great Soviet Union (USSR) fell apart and became several countries. Relatively unheard is their intervention in Ukraine’s political sovereignty, and succeeded in splitting the country and made the richer part of it as its new block. This will continue regardless what Mr. John Kerry, the current US Secretary of State has to say in this regard. He wants to muster the support of NATO countries and inflict pain to the Russian ambition. This, he wants to achieve without undermining the Russia’s immediate contribution to global energy supplies. And he has few threat points (tools) with which to accomplish this. In other words Russia is not particularly dependent on the US exports.
Any drastic action by the NATO countries can have serious telling effect on many European countries. Britain for example, fears that the imposition of financial and banking sanctions would lead to a rush of Russian capital, out of the city of London, Germany, and Italy, worry that an immediate embargo on oil supplies to them would create enormous financial and political implications.
The most immediate concern is that of France who are in the final stages of selling two warships to Russia for Euro 1.2 billion. The French president Francois Hollande is in a quandary as to what he should be doing. Selling warships to Russia is no win proposition and will create a serious impact on NATO.
Selling by the French would send a powerful signal of western weakness. If France decides not to sell it to Russia, what would they be doing with these ships? Perhaps France’s allies must find another destination for these ships. France cannot buy it because of their limited defense budget which is already overstretched. Can EU countries join together and buy it and operate it as a common asset?
What is the French president going to do? If they sell the ships to the Russians and they may use it against Ukraine and Georgia, which France does not want to but at the same time it does not want to lose out on the sale.
For Russia, this is the beginning of rebuilding the Soviet Union. Mr. Putin is a very powerful leader and will test the resolve of Western countries to stand up against him. One thing is certain. All western countries facing deflation and high unemployment would try to make a compromise. Economic reality is more likely to win than political agreements.
The US is currently standing on solid ground with regards to energy supplies, especially natural gas, which is available in almost unlimited quantity. The resovietization is a dangerous policy that will have far reaching implications to the free world. To know about this one only needs to travel back in time and see how USSR was formed.
Future history will tell us that if the free world does not play its part correctly, they will create a monster again, which the free world destroyed it two decades ago.